Calculate mape for each forecast

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Reference no: EM1377740

2-independent approaches of forecasting based on judgment and experience have been prepared each month for the last ten months. The forecasts and actual sales are as follows...

Month Sales Forecast 1 Forecast 2
1 770 771 769
2 789 785 787
3 794 790 792
4 780 784 798
5 768 770 774
6 772 768 770
7 760 761 759
8 775 771 775
9 786 784 788
10 790 788 788

A) Calculate the MSe and MAd for each forecast. Does either forecast seem superior? Explain.

B) Calculate MAPE for each forecast.

C) Calculate a tracking signal for the 10th month for each forecast using the cumulative error for months 1 to 10. Use action limits of +/- 4. Is there bias present? Explain.

D) Calculate 2x control limits for each forecast.

E) Prepare a naive forecast for periods 2 through 11 using the given sales data. Compute each of the following; 1) MSE 2) MAD 3) tracking signal at month 10 4) 2x control limits. How do the naive results compare with the other two forecasts?

Plot 3 error control charts for parts c and d.

Discuss comparative conclusions for each technique based on the control charts.

Reference no: EM1377740

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