Reference no: EM133720225

Case: In the problem you are using historical headcounts and number of trucks loaded to provide Human Resources with a technique to predict the need for added hiring or layoffs due to headcount variation. The spreadsheet asks for a MAPE calculation for all options. In the instructional videos, MSE (mean squared error) and MAD (mean absolute deviation) are demonstrated but not required for this problem. MAPE and MAD are the most widely used to evaluate different methods of evaluating alternative methods of forecasting. There are two tabs to be completed. Each of the five forecast methods are worth 8 points each. Four points for the forecast and four points for the MAPEs. Incorrect selection of the best option or a poor explanation for the choice may result in additional points loss

Question 1. Generate as many valid forecasts as you can for a five-period moving average, a naïve 1-period moving average, and a weighted average forecast with weights 0.6, 0.3 and 0.1 for the most recent data, the next most recent data, and so forth, respectively.

Question 2. Calculate MAPE for each forecast. You will have a MAPE at the individual month level and the overall average for each methodology. (Use common data periods only.) Insert columns as necessary.

Recommend a forecast and explain why that is your choice.

Use Excel for all calculations.

All calculations should be highlighted in yellow