Calculate forecast accuracy measures

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Reference no: EM132191388

Demand data on "Service Orders" for a particular service enterprise for the previous 12 months is as follows: 550, 652, 673, 707, 725, 752, 780, 797, 815, 836, 850, and 872.

a) Plot the time series data. What pattern do you observe in the historical data?

b) Use the following three methods and prepare three forecasting tables with errors for the given demand data.

a 3-month Weighted Moving Average with the weights 0.6, 0.3, and 0.1;

Exponential Smoothing with smoothing constant = 0.9;

Linear Trend Regression

c) Calculate the demand for month 13 using all the three methods.

d) Calculate Forecast Accuracy Measures – MAD/MAE, MSE, and MAPE.

e) Recommend the best method among the above three for implementation. What was your basis for such a recommendation?

f) Plot the time series data for the actual Demand and Forecasts under the above three methods tried? What do you notice from the time series plots with the three forecasts.

Reference no: EM132191388

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