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A fast-food restaurant chain is considering a store expansion program. The most important factor to consider is next two year’s level of interest rate. It is estimated that there is a 30% chance that it goes up, a 50% chance that it stays same, and a 20% chance that it goes down. The strategies and corresponding expected payoffs (profit) are
Rate goes-up Rate stays same Rate goes-down
(30%) (50%) (20%)
Build 10 new places -$300,000 $50,000 $250,000
Build 5 new places -$150,000 $26,000 $80,000
Do nothing $70,000 0 $25,000
Draw a decision tree. Calculate expected value at every node. What should they do?
Given these sales figures over the first 6 months of the year, your boss needs you to test two different forecasting methods (parts a and b below) to determine which method is best. For your measure of “best”, recommend to your boss that the company ..
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