Bidding on contract to forecast the growth prospects

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Reference no: EM132279567

You work for a consulting firm that is bidding on a contract to forecast the growth prospects of an electronics company over the next five years. The company has developed a specialized computer chip that is used in highly sensitive medical equipment and does not anticipate creating any new product lines, although periodic improvements to the chip are anticipated. Write a short proposal describing how you would develop such forecasts, using PIVASE as a guide. For purposes of the assignment, assume that any historical data you might need can be made available, but describe carefully the nature of the data needed.

PIVASE

Purpose: What do we hope to achieve by generating the forecast? That is, what plans are dependent upon the results of the forecasting exercise? How far ahead do we wish to forecast? We refer to this period as the forecasting horizon.

Information: What do we know that may help us in forecasting. And when will we know it? Detailed data is only useful if it is available in timely fashion.

Value: How valuable is the forecast? What would you pay to have perfect knowledge of the future event?

Analysis: From analyzing the data can we develop a model that captures its characteristics? And how does it perform on new (hold-out sample) data?

System: What system of forecasts (models) and software is needed to meet the needs of the organization?

Evaluation: How do we know whether a particular forecasting exercise was effective and what the potential is for improvement?

Reference no: EM132279567

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