Reference no: EM13806845

Because the likelihood that the zoning referendum will be approved is such an important factor in the decision process, Glenn suggested that the firm hire a market research service to conduct a survey of voters. The survey would provide a better estimate of the likelihood that the referendum for a zoning change would be approved. The market research firm that Oceanview Development has worked with in the past has agreed to do the study for $15,000. The results of the study will be available August 1, so that Oceanview will have this information before the August 15 bid deadline. The results of the survey will be either a prediction that the zoning change will be approved or a prediction that the zoning change will be rejected. After considering the record of the market research service in previous studies conducted for Oceanview, Glenn developed the following probability estimates con- cerning the accuracy of the market research information: P(A | s1) = 0.9 P(N | s1) = 0.1 P(A | s2) = 0.2 P(N | s2) = 0.8 Where A = prediction of zoning change approval N = prediction that zoning change will not be approved s1 = the zoning change is approved by the voters s2 = the zoning change is rejected by the voters