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Bayes' Theorem Problem: Oil Fields
Suppose you work for an oil company and you're looking at some land which might have oil in it.
With oil prices so low, it's only worth buying if there's A LOT of oil in it. Suppose land such as this has a 20% chance of having A LOT of oil.
The test the geologist performs to determine if there's A LOT of oil is 95% sensitive and 99% specific.
Suppose the test comes back positive for A LOT of oil; how likely is it that the test is wrong and there isn't A LOT of oil in that land?
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