Based on the mad which forecast method is better

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Reference no: EM132112344

Problem 1:

Observations of the demand for a spare part stocked at a parts supply depot during the calendar year 2012 were

Month	Demand	Month	Demand
January	95	July	234
February	62	August	284
March	135	September	221
April	211	October	281
May	199	November	192
June	276	December	302

a. Determine the one-step-ahead forecasts for the demand for January 2013 using 3-, 6-, and 12-month moving averages.

b. Using a four-month moving average, determine the one-step-ahead forecasts for July through December 2012.

c. Compute MAD, MSE, MAPE for the forecasts obtained in b.

Problem 2:

Observed weekly sales of ball peen hammers at the town hardware store over a ten-week period have been 13, 11, 26, 21, 32, 13, 21, 22, 30, and 26.

a. Suppose that five-week moving averages are used to forecast sales. Determine the one-step-ahead forecasts for weeks 6 through 10.

b. Suppose that exponential smoothing is used with a smoothing constant of α = 0.15. Find the exponential smoothing forecasts for weeks 6 through 10 (start the forecasting process from week 1).

c. Based on the MAD, which forecast method is better?

Problem 3:

The sales of a tablet computer in a popular electronic store during the calendar year 2012 were

Month	Demand	Month	Demand
January	103	July	199
February	119	August	208
March	131	September	221
April	149	October	237
May	172	November	252
June	184	December	268

a. Using 3-month simple moving average and exponential smoothing (with α = 0.10 and 0.20), determine the one-step-ahead forecasts for July 2012 through January 2013.

b. Using 3-month double moving average (using base level and trend), determine the one-step-ahead forecasts for July 2012 through January 2013.

c. Compute MAD, MSE, and MAPE for the above forecasts.

d. Based on the MAPE, which forecast method is the best?

Problem 4:

Compile a list of major system life-cycle activities. For each activity on the list, try to find the related supply chain activities. Present your finding in a table with the system life-cycle stage in the first column, system life-cycle activities in the second column and the related supply chain activities in the third column.

Reference no: EM132112344

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