Average forecasts and exponential smoothing forecasts

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Reference no: EM131733220

Consider the demand for trading cards listed below.

Year Demand

2011 50,000

2012 40,000

2013 54,000

2014 62,000

2015 86,000

A. Develop 2 year moving average forecasts for 2013, 2014, and 2015.

B. Develop exponential smoothing forecasts for 2012 through 2016 with a smoothing constant of .2. To initialize the process, you may assume that the forecast for 2011 was 50,000.

C. Calculate the MAD and the MAPE for both of your moving average forecasts and exponential smoothing forecasts covering 2013 through 2015 from part a and part b.

D. Based on part c, which model should you use for forecasting? Support your decision.

Reference no: EM131733220

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