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Find the alternative would be chosen according to expected value and utility.
For the payoff table below, the decision maker will use P (s1) = .15, P (s2) = .5, and P (s3) = .35.
s1
s2
s3
d1
-5000
1000
10,000
d2
-15,000
-2000
40,000
a. What alternative would be chosen according to expected value?
b. For a lottery having a payoff of 40,000 with probability p and -15,000 with probability (1-p), the decision maker expressed the following indifference probabilities.
Payoff
Probability
.85
.60
.53
.50
Let U(40,000) = 10 and U(-15,000) = 0 and find the utility value for each payoff.
c. What alternative would be chosen according to expected utility?
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