Ai causal models and large language model forecasting

Assignment Help Other Subject
Reference no: EM133700761

Programming AI for Business Analytics

Assessment - AI Causal Models and Large Language Model Forecasting Project

Assessment - Practical Individual Project

Your Task

You are required to:
Create a "bi-annual report" for the Australian "Directorate for Geopolitical and Economics Analytics".
Showcases your creative, analytical, and technical strengths in the application of AI-causal models with Large Language Models for forecasting.

Background
Australia has established the "Directorate for Geopolitical and Economics Analytics" (DGEA) and you have been appointed as the Director for Business Analytics.

Your core responsibilities are:
To apply AI Causal and Large Language Models for the analyse macroeconomic data.
To create the bi-annual "Geopolitical and Economics Outcomes" report for the Directorate that details the causal factors responsible for the shifts in Australian macroeconomic indicators such as inflation rate, interest rates, and overall economic growth.
To provide a short term, 3-6 months forecasts, using the latest advancements in AI, specifically, that of NeuralProphet and LLMs.
To identify macroeconomic causal factors that have an impact on Australian inflation rate and overall economic growth.
To make strategic recommendations on the Monetary and Economic Policy to the Australia Government.

The DGEA Global Macroeconomics Dataset
The Directorate for Geopolitical and Economics Analytics harvests and analyses a large macroeconomic dataset that includes data for the following economies:
Australia, US, EU, and BRICS
And includes the following set of economic indicators:
GNI - Gross National Income
Core and Headline Inflation rates

Interest rate
GDP (Power Purchasing Parity)
Currency exchange rates
Broad Money Supply
The central bank cash rate
Unemployment Rates
Debt-to-GDP Ratio

Assessment Instructions

Section #1: Forecast the Inflation Rate and Economic Growth without Causal Factors
For 3 - 6 months period into the future, forecast the following using NeuralProphet:

Australia's inflation rate, and
Australia's GDP.

Section #2: Correlation and Identification of Causal Factors

Use XGBoost with SHAP to determine the correlation of predictors with the CPI or Inflation Rate as the outcome.
Use EconML to identify which of the correlation factors are causal.
Generate a table of p-values.
Visualise the corresponding ATE Chart.

Section #3: Forecasting with Causal Factors
For 3 - 6 months period into the future, forecast the Australian Inflation Rate (CPI) using the causal factors as external regressors:
Forecast each of the causal factors using Large Language Model or Generative AI.
Use the forecasted values for each of causal factors as external predictor variables and
forecast the Australian CPI using NeuralProphet.
Export the forecasts as CSV and visualise using Exploratory.io or PowerBI or Tableau.

Section #4: Create a Bi-annual Directorate Report
Create the Directorate Bi-Annual Report using the insights from Sections 1 - 3. Your report must contain the following:
An artistic Cover Page
You may use Canva to generate the Cover Page.
You may also use LLMs to generate the artwork.
A Contents Page
An Executive Summary (200 words)
An Introduction to the geopolitical economics of Australia, EU, US, and BRICS
Use visuals for storytelling (300 words)
Remember to visualise the Directorate's Global Macroeconomic Dataset
A Methodology Section

Describe and reference LLMs and Causal AI
Results Section (200 words)
Describe the causal factors.
Visualise and describe the forecasts.
Insights and Recommendations Section (300 words)
Identify each insight and write recommendations based on these insights.
During the 3 - 6 months into the future, what will be the challenges faced by Australia?
Your recommendation should include how Australia could strategically position itself within the economies of BRICS, US, and EU.

 

Reference no: EM133700761

Questions Cloud

Business event using appropriate methods and tools : Pick a real business event that excites you and critically reflect on the assumptions they may have made about planning and hosting a business event
Identify a problem on a system level that can affect quality : Consider the health care system. Identify a problem on a systems level that can affect quality as identified in the IOM's domains.
Which of the paranoia subscales would apply in the case : A clinician notes that an examinee is guarded and suspicious around people he doesn't know well. Which of the Paranoia (PAR) subscales would apply in this case?
What were the factors that helped you to land on : What were the factors that helped you to land on that priority need? Find at least one outside resource that supports this choice.
Ai causal models and large language model forecasting : AI Causal Models and Large Language Model Forecasting Project Assessment, apply AI Causal and Large Language Models for the analyse macroeconomic data.
Functionality of the federally funded suplemental nutrition : How it effects the quality and functionality of the federally funded Suplemental nutrition assistance program.
How would you adjust the dose of the pregnant persons : How would you adjust the dose of this pregnant persons, antibiotic compared to the dose that you would give to a non-pregnant person of the same age?
How do racial and ethnic disparities and prenatal education : How do racial and ethnic disparities, prenatal education, societal biases, and external factors like a pandemic influence breastfeeding practice?
Examples of public problems include public health crises : Examples of public problems include public health crises, economic inequality, and systemic racism.

Reviews

Write a Review

Other Subject Questions & Answers

  Cross-cultural opportunities and conflicts in canada

Short Paper on Cross-cultural Opportunities and Conflicts in Canada.

  Sociology theory questions

Sociology are very fundamental in nature. Role strain and role constraint speak about the duties and responsibilities of the roles of people in society or in a group. A short theory about Darwin and Moths is also answered.

  A book review on unfaithful angels

This review will help the reader understand the social work profession through different concepts giving the glimpse of why the social work profession might have drifted away from its original purpose of serving the poor.

  Disorder paper: schizophrenia

Schizophrenia does not really have just one single cause. It is a possibility that this disorder could be inherited but not all doctors are sure.

  Individual assignment: two models handout and rubric

Individual Assignment : Two Models Handout and Rubric,    This paper will allow you to understand and evaluate two vastly different organizational models and to effectively communicate their differences.

  Developing strategic intent for toyota

The following report includes the description about the organization, its strategies, industry analysis in which it operates and its position in the industry.

  Gasoline powered passenger vehicles

In this study, we examine how gasoline price volatility and income of the consumers impacts consumer's demand for gasoline.

  An aspect of poverty in canada

Economics thesis undergrad 4th year paper to write. it should be about 22 pages in length, literature review, economic analysis and then data or cost benefit analysis.

  Ngn customer satisfaction qos indicator for 3g services

The paper aims to highlight the global trends in countries and regions where 3G has already been introduced and propose an implementation plan to the telecom operators of developing countries.

  Prepare a power point presentation

Prepare the power point presentation for the case: Santa Fe Independent School District

  Information literacy is important in this environment

Information literacy is critically important in this contemporary environment

  Associative property of multiplication

Write a definition for associative property of multiplication.

Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd