Adjusted forecast to predict demand for packaged tours

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Reference no: EM132089295

The manager of a travel agency has been using a seasonally adjusted forecast to predict demand for packaged tours. The actual and predicted values are as follows: Period Demand Predicted 1 128 114 2 194 200 3 158 150 4 91 104 5 82 80 6 132 136 7 126 128 8 130 124 9 95 101 10 149 150 11 109 94 12 85 83 13 137 140 14 134 128 a. Compute MAD for the fifth period, then update it period by period using exponential smoothing with α = .1. (Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 3 decimal places.) t Period A Demand MADt 1 128 2 194 3 158 4 91 5 82 6 132 7 126 8 130 9 95 10 149 11 109 12 85 13 137 14 134 b. Compute a tracking signal for periods 5 through 14 using the initial and updated MADs. (Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 3 decimal places.) t Period A Demand Tracking Signal 1 128 2 194 3 158 4 91 5 82 6 132 7 126 8 130 9 95 10 149 11 109 12 85 13 137 14 134.

Reference no: EM132089295

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