Risk and Decision Making
Risk refers to a situation where there are many possible outcomes to a decision and the probability of each specific outcome is known. If those probabilities are not known, the decision maker is said to face uncertainty. That is, uncertainty refers to a situation when there is more than one possible outcome to a decision and the probability of each specific outcome is not known or even meaningful.
Given a probability for the outcomes of a business decision, the statistics of that distribution can be used to evaluate return and risk with the help of following measures.
- The expected value or mean that is a measure of expected return.
- The standard deviation, a measure of risk.
- The coefficient of variation that is a measure of risk per rupee of return.
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