Probability

Probability. It is rarely possible to predict the future of the business world with complete certainty. There is always an element of uncertainty as far as the future courses of events are concerned. The probability concepts try to analyses the uncertainties and bring out necessary data with reasonable accuracy for the purpose of decision making. Probabilities are of two types.

(i)     Objective probability and (ii) subjective probability. The objective probability is a probability for which there is a definite historical evidence and common experience. For example in tossing of a coin the probability of the head or tail coming is 0.50 i.e., or ½ or 50 percent. This however assume that the coin is fair i.e., unweighted or unbiased.

            On the other hand the subjective probability is a probability where historical evidence is not available and the businessman has to rely on own estimation of a situation and the likelihood of various possible outcomes, for example, the of problem faced by a retailer and a salesman to order for 500 umbrellas or 100 rain-coats during the rainy season. Though both the retailer and the salesman are quite competent and experienced in their lines, the decision in the above situation depends not no objective evidence, but on estimates or educated guesses.

            The probability of any given action must be between 0 and 1 and the sum of all these probabilities must be 1. If the probability is '0' to an occurrence, it will not take place and in case the probability is 1 to an occurrence, it is certain that the occurrence will take place.

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