Analytic Delphi Method

When taking decisions regarding multiple locations with different objectives, many intangible issues have to be considered. Analytic Delphi Method helps managers take complex multi-location decisions. This method requires the participation of a coordinating panel, a forecasting panel and a strategic panel. The forecasting team's functions include forecasting future trends in the physical and social environment that can affect the organization. The strategic team identifies the long-term strategic goals and objectives of the organization. The coordinating team, which can consist of external consultants or company employees, develops the questionnaire and coordinates the Delphi process.

The analytic Delphi method involves the following steps: 

1. Form two Delphi panels: The coordinating team selects two teams from within the organization, the forecasting panel and the strategic panel. These two panels participate in two Delphi inquiries.  

2. Identify trends and opportunities: In the first Delphi inquiry, the coordinating panel uses a questionnaire to elicit information from the forecasting panel regarding future trends, threats and opportunities. In most cases, the process is repeated several times till a consensus is reached.

3. Determine directions and strategic goals of the organization: The information collected through the first Delphi inquiry is given to the strategic panel. This information is used by the strategic panel in the second Delphi inquiry to identify the organization's direction and goals.  

4. Develop alternatives: After the strategic goals have been identified, the strategic panel develops various alternatives.

5. Prioritize the alternatives: All the alternatives generated in the previous step are presented to the members of the strategic panel to obtain their subjective value judgments (on all the developed alternatives).

This step-by-step process assists in identifying trends, developments and opportunities that can be taken advantage of, depending on the organizations strengths and weaknesses.                  

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